Fundamentals of Building a New Crime Analysis Unit Essay

Since the late 1980s and early 1990s, police departments across the country and throughout the world have begun adopting what is known as proactive policing. This term began as a simple theory which utilized concepts such as community policing and statistical formulas to engage and apprehend criminals before they commit a crime. Police chiefs, county sheriffs, and department heads began to realize that time moved on since the days of the â€Å"Wild Wild West† and so to have criminals. Half a century ago, criminals were not as intelligent or as technologically savvy as they are today, namely because of the computer and medical breakthroughs researchers have made. Nowadays, people live longer, have access to healthier foods and dietary supplements, and better education, thereby making it easier for potential criminals to live better lives and develop complex thought-out operations for their next heist. The law enforcement leaders then recognized the need to find a better way to combat this ever-evolving wave of criminal activities, which eventually lead them to entertain the idea of implementing crime analysis units (CAUs) to assist officers in figuring out where they needed to go to thwart crime before it happens. In order to properly begin a crime analysis unit, one must realize exactly what that unit is, does, will be responsible for, and who they will ultimately answer to. Furthermore, a CAU cannot simply be started by placing a select few in crime analyst positions and expecting them to fulfill the job requirements. Instead, people who have a high school education, college experience, and strong analytical or math skills should be chosen and given specialized training in the field of crime analysis. So, with that having been stated, what is crime analysis and what can it do for an agency? According to IACA, the International Association of Crime Analysts: Crime analysis is both a profession and a set of techniques. The professionals, who perform crime analysis, and the techniques they use, are dedicated to helping a police department become more effective through better information. The information that analysts provide can help†¦ olve crimes, develop effective strategies and tactics to prevent future crimes, find and apprehend offenders, prosecute and convict offenders, improve safety and quality of life, optimize internal operations, prioritize patrol and investigation, detect and solve community problems, plan for future resource needs, enact effective policies, and educate the public (What is Crime Analysis, 2011). Now that the basics of what crime analysis CAN do have been identified, the questions that must be asked, according to Intellysis (2013), include: * Is a crime analysis unit really needed? What’s the difference between crime analysis and intelligence analysis? * What kind of crime analysis is needed†¦ administrative, strategic, or tactical? * What should the mission or motto be for this unit? * Who will be assigned what tasks? How will work be divided? * How many analysts will be needed? * How do we go about hiring an analyst? What will the job entail and what will be the salary? * What should the workspace be like? * What technology, supplies, and equipment will be needed? * What products will the crime analysts produce? * Where should the crime analysis unit be placed within the organizational chart? Will a policy and procedure manual need to be created? * What type of training will be needed for crime analysts? All questions listed above are relevant and must be asked if an agency is to have any hopes of implementing a crime analysis unit. To answer the first question of necessity, it is up to the individual municipality and agency head to decide whether or not a crime analysis unit is truly needed. In many small cities and towns, the need for such a unit is slim to none; however, with the ever-increasing rate of criminal activity in small areas, that thought is rapidly becoming obsolete. The second question, regarding the difference between crime analysis and intelligence analysis, lies in the information that is analyzed. Crime analysis deals with ‘what’, ‘where’, and ‘when’, while intelligence analysis maintains the ‘who’, ‘why’, and ‘how’, meaning that crime analysts look at individual M. O. s, crime types, and locations, whereas intelligence analysts deal with why something happened, how it happened, who did it, and how can it be prevented. In addition to this, though, there is a third type known as the crime and intelligence analyst, which is essentially a combination of both. To figure out what type of crime analyst the agency requires, the history of criminal activity and the needs of the entire department must be reviewed. There are three types of crime analysis – tactical, strategic, and administrative. They are explained here: * Tactical Crime Analysis – primarily functions to promote rapid response to immediate criminal activity. This type of analysis should usually be the primary function performed by crime analysts at the local agency level, although it does somewhat depend upon the specific needs of the individual entity itself. Tactical crime analysis is the area where trends, patterns, and series are identified and modus operandi is linked with offenders. * Strategic Crime Analysis – deals with everyday operational strategies and formulates solutions for problems arising from those operations. This is sometimes known as the analysis that caters to the command staff and city/county government officials, because it can assist with resource allocation, scheduling, patrol area configuration, and analyzes crime versus staffing demands. * Administrative Crime Analysis – focuses on long-term activity in a certain area (i. . figuring out why crime is high in a certain area, and what needs to be changed to counteract this). Additionally, providing certain information, such as general crime stats for informational purposes to city hall, neighborhood watch groups, and citizens are a large part of administrative crime analysis (CCAA). Anytime a new group or institution is put into place, one of the first things that must be considered is where that group is going? What will be their primary focus or goal? Mission statements vary across the country, from agency to agency, but a few things remain the same. In any mission statement for a crime analysis unit, the very first words should read â€Å"The overall objective† or â€Å"The mission of the crime analysis unit,† or at least something along those lines. This lets readers know that what is coming next will be what your unit is going to be all about. This is the area where the proposal can be viewed either positively, or pushed aside because the goals do not seem achievable, or they are not seen as highly valuable. Therefore, this statement should be well-organized, attention-grabbing, concise, yet fully inclusive of all major objectives. Here’s an example: The mission of the Crime Analysis Unit (CAU) at Make Believe Police Department is to collect, collate, analyze, and prepare criminal / criminal intelligence data to be disseminated to patrol officers and investigators as reinforcement for the proactive policing initiative. The unit will identify emerging crime trends, patterns, and series and make recommendations to the appropriate personnel for prompt response, and potentially link offenders to criminal activity, assisting with bringing said offenders to justice. The citizens of the City of Make Believe will also benefit from the Crime Analysis Unit, as it will be available to assist the public in the retrieval of crime statistics and information on high-crime areas. When reviewing potential tasks a crime analyst will be responsible for, it is important to note that each agency has different needs; therefore, each agency will need analysts to do different things. In the same light, it is also up to the individual agency as to how many crime analysts will actually be needed; however, it is recommended by Intellysis that there be at least one analyst per every 100,000 citizens (Starting a Crime Analysis Unit, 2013). On the other hand, the University of South Alabama’s Center for Public Safety recommends that there should be about one crime analyst for every one-hundred sworn personnel (O’Shea and Nicholls, 2002, p. 13). At most agencies, hiring requirements for a crime analyst are elevated because it is considered a highly analytical and professional position. As such, the minimum education and experience usually required for consideration is a Bachelor’s Degree in either criminal justice, criminology, mathematics, or a related field and at least one year of experience as a crime analyst or two years in a related field. In some agencies, the hiring party may consider a candidate who does not have a Bachelor’s Degree, but does have extensive experience in law enforcement, vice versa, or an equivalent combination of both. As far as salary is concerned, this is also up to the individual municipality. This is something that will be based upon funding, actual necessity, complexity of the work to be performed, and the combined experience/education of the person(s) to be hired. Generally, though, the annual salary of a crime analyst is thought to be between $28,852 and $68,138 with a median income of $39,493 according to Payscale’s national crime analyst salary website (2013). In most units, crime analysts will be responsible for tactical, strategic, and administrative analysis, as well as completing public requests for assistance.

The Golden Lily Chapter 5

WORD OF MY UPCOMING DATE spread fast. I could only presume Trey had told Kristin and Julia, who had in turn told Jill and Eddie and God only knew who else†¦. So, I shouldn't have been surprised when I got a call from Adrian just after dinner. He started talking before I could even say hello. â€Å"Really, Sage? A date?† I sighed. â€Å"Yes, Adrian. A date.† â€Å"A real date. Not, like, doing homework together,† he added. â€Å"I mean like where you go out to a movie or something. And a movie that's not part of a school assignment. Or about something boring.† â€Å"A real date.† I figured I wouldn't give him the specifics on the Shakespeare play. â€Å"What's the lucky guy's name?† â€Å"Brayden.† There was a pause. â€Å"Brayden? That's his real name?† â€Å"Why are you asking if everything's real? You think I'd make any of this up?† â€Å"No, no,† Adrian assured me. â€Å"That's what's so unbelievable about it. Is he cute?† I glanced at the clock. It was time for me to meet my study group. â€Å"Gee, maybe I should just send you a picture to review?† â€Å"Yes, please. And a full background check and life history.† â€Å"I have to go. Why do you care so much anyway?† I finally asked in exasperation. His answer took a long time, which was uncharacteristic. Adrian was usually ready with a dozen witty quips. Maybe he couldn't decide which one to use. When he finally responded, it was in that usual sarcastic way of his – though the levity sounded a little forced. â€Å"Because it's one of those things I never expected to see in my lifetime,† he told me. â€Å"Like a comet. Or world peace. I'm just used to you being single.† For some reason, that bothered me. â€Å"What, you don't think any guy would ever be interested in me?† â€Å"Actually,† said Adrian, sounding remarkably serious, â€Å"I can imagine lots of guys being interested in you.† I was certain he was teasing me and had no time for his jokes. I said goodbye and headed off to my study group, which, thankfully, was pretty dedicated and got a lot of work done. But when I met up with Trey at the library later, he was less than focused. He couldn't stop going on and on about how brilliant he was in getting Brayden and me together. â€Å"This date hasn't even happened, and I'm already tired of it,† I said. I spread Trey's lab paperwork out on the table before us. The numbers and formulas were comforting, far more concrete and orderly than the mysteries of social interaction. I tapped the lab assignment with my pen. â€Å"Pay attention. We don't have a lot of time.† He shrugged off my concerns. â€Å"Can't you just finish it?† â€Å"No! I left enough time so that you could do it yourself. I'll help, but that's it.† Trey was intelligent enough to figure out most of it on his own. Using me was just another way for him to dodge looking smart. He let the date go and focused on the work. I thought I was free of Brayden interrogation until, just as were wrapping up, Jill and Micah came strolling by, hand in hand. They were with a group of other people, which didn't surprise me. Micah was easygoing and popular, and Jill had inherited a large circle of friends by going out with him. Her eyes sparkled with happiness as someone in the group told a funny story that made them all laugh. I couldn't help a smile myself. This was a far cry from when Jill had first come to Amberwood and been treated as an outcast for unusual looks and odd behaviors. She was thriving with this new social status. Maybe it would help her embrace her royal background. My smile faded when Jill pulled Micah away from the group and hurried over to our table. Her eager expression worried me. â€Å"Is it true?† she asked. â€Å"Do you have a date?† â€Å"For the love of – you know it's true! And you told Adrian, didn't you?† I gave her a pointed look. Their psychic bond wasn't active 100 percent of the time, but something told me she knew about his earlier phone call to me. When the bond was â€Å"on,† she could see into his mind, observing both his feelings and actions. It only worked one way, however. Adrian had no such insight. She turned sheepish. â€Å"Yeah†¦ I couldn't help it when Micah told me†¦Ã¢â‚¬  â€Å"I heard it from Eddie,† Micah added quickly, as though that might get him off the hook. He had red hair and blue eyes that were always cheerful and friendly. He was one of those people you couldn't help but like, which made it harder to undo the tangled web Jill had woven by dating him. â€Å"Hey, I did not tell Eddie,† said Trey defensively. I turned my gaze on him. â€Å"But you told other people. And they told Eddie.† Trey gave a half shrug. â€Å"I might have mentioned it here and there.† â€Å"Unbelievable,† I said. â€Å"What's this guy like?† asked Jill. â€Å"Is he cute?† I thought about it. â€Å"Pretty cute.† She perked up. â€Å"Well, that's promising. Where's he taking you? Somewhere good? Night on the town? Fancy dinner? Micah and I had an awesome time at Salton Sea. It's so pretty. You could go there, have a romantic picnic.† Her cheeks turned pink and she stopped for breath, as if realizing she was talking too much. Rambling was one of Jill's most endearing traits. â€Å"We're going to see Shakespeare in the park,† I said. That got me silence. â€Å"Antony and Cleopatra. It's good.† I suddenly felt the need to defend myself. â€Å"A classic. Brayden and I both appreciate Shakespeare.† â€Å"His name is Brayden?† asked Micah in disbelief. â€Å"What kind of a name is that?† Jill frowned. â€Å"Antony and Cleopatra†¦ is that romantic?† â€Å"Kind of,† I said. â€Å"For a while. Then everyone dies in the end.† Jill's horrified expression told me that I wasn't really improving matters. â€Å"Well,† she said. â€Å"I hope you have, um, fun.† A few moments of awkwardness ensued, then her eyes lit up again. â€Å"Oh! Lia called me tonight. She said you two talked about me modeling for her again?† â€Å"She what?† I exclaimed. â€Å"That's not quite how I'd put it. She asked if you could do some print ads. I said no.† â€Å"Oh.† Jill's face fell a little. â€Å"I understand. From what she said†¦ I just thought. Well. I thought maybe there was a way†¦Ã¢â‚¬  I gave her a meaningful look. â€Å"I'm sorry, Jill. I wish there was a way. But you know why you can't.† She nodded sadly. â€Å"I understand. It's okay.† â€Å"You don't need a modeling campaign to be beautiful to me,† said Micah gallantly. That brought a smile back to her face that faded when she saw a nearby clock. Her transient moods reminded me of Adrian's, and I wondered if some of that was the effect of the bond. â€Å"Ugh. Curfew's coming. We'd better head out. You coming, Sydney?† I glanced at Trey's lab. It was complete and, I knew, absolutely perfect. â€Å"I'll leave in just a couple minutes.† She and Micah left. Glancing over at Trey, I was surprised to find him staring at her retreating figure intently. I nudged him. â€Å"Hey. Don't forget to put your name on this, or it was all for nothing.† It still took him several seconds to drag his gaze away. â€Å"That's your sister, isn't it?† His dismal tone made it sound more like a statement than a question, as though he were revealing some unfortunate fact. â€Å"Um, yeah. You've seen her like a hundred times. She's gone to this school for a month.† He frowned. â€Å"I just never thought much about it†¦ never got a good look at her before. I don't have any classes with her.† â€Å"She was front and center in that fashion show.† â€Å"She had a mask on.† His dark eyes studied me. â€Å"You guys don't look alike at all.† â€Å"We get that a lot.† Trey still looked troubled, and I had no idea why. â€Å"You're smart to keep her out of modeling,† he said at last. â€Å"She's too young.† â€Å"It's a religious thing,† I said, knowing Trey wouldn't quiz me for many details on our â€Å"faith.† â€Å"Whatever it is, keep her out of the public eye.† He scrawled his name on the lab and shut his textbook. â€Å"You don't want her plastered all over magazines or something. Lots of creepy people out there.† Now I was the one left staring. I agreed with him. Too much exposure meant the Moroi dissidents could find Jill. But why would Trey feel that way, too? His claims that she was too young were sound, I supposed, but there was something vaguely unsettling about the exchange. The way he'd watched her walk away was too weird. But then, what other reason aside from concern could he have? The normality of the next couple of days was welcome – normality being relative around here, of course. Adrian kept sending me e-mails, asking me to rescue him (while also offering unsolicited dating advice). Ms. Terwilliger continued her passive aggressive attempts to teach me magic. Eddie continued in his fierce dedication to Jill. And Angeline continued her not-sosubtle advances on Eddie. After watching her â€Å"accidentally† spill her water bottle all over her white T-shirt at practice with him one day, I knew something would have to be done, no matter what Eddie had said about his personal life. Like so many awkward and unpleasant tasks in our cohort, I had a feeling I was the one who would have to do it. I figured this would be some sort of stern, heart-to-heart talk about the proper way to solicit someone's attention, but on the night of my date with Brayden, it was soon made clear to me that I was apparently the last person who should be giving dating advice. â€Å"You're wearing that?† demanded Kristin, pointing an accusing finger at the outfit I'd neatly set out on my bed. She and Julia had taken it upon themselves to inspect me before I went out. Jill and Angeline had tagged along without invitation, and I couldn't help but notice that everyone seemed a lot more excited about this than I was. Mostly I was a tangle of nerves and fear. This was what it must feel like to go into a test without having studied. It was a new experience for me. â€Å"It's not a school uniform,† I said. I'd had enough sense to know wearing that would be unacceptable. â€Å"And it's a color. Kind of.† Julia held up the top I'd selected, a crisp cotton blouse with short sleeves and a high, button-up collar. The whole thing was a soft shade of lemon yellow, which I thought would score me points with this group since everyone accused me of not wearing colors. I'd even combined it with a pair of jeans. She shook her head. â€Å"This is the kind of shirt that says, ‘You're never getting in here.'† â€Å"Well, why would he?† I demanded. Kristin, sitting cross-legged in my desk chair, tilted her head thoughtfully as she studied the shirt. â€Å"I think it's more like a shirt that says, ‘I'm going to have to end this date early so I can go prepare my Power Point presentation.'† That sent them into fits of laughter. I was about to protest when I noticed Jill and Angeline going through my closet. â€Å"Hey! Maybe you should ask before doing that.† â€Å"All your dresses are too heavy,† said Jill. She pulled out one made of soft, gray cashmere. â€Å"I mean, at least this is sleeveless, but it's still too much for this weather.† â€Å"Half my wardrobe is,† I said. â€Å"It's made for four seasons. I didn't really have a lot of time to switch to all summer stuff before coming here.† â€Å"See?† exclaimed Angeline triumphantly. â€Å"Now you know my problem. I can cut a couple inches off of that, if you want.† â€Å"No!† To my relief, Jill put the dress away. A few moments later, she produced a new find. â€Å"What about this?† She held up a hanger carrying a long white tank top made of light, crinkly material with a scoop neckline. Kristin glanced at Angeline. â€Å"Think you could make the neckline lower?† â€Å"The neckline's low enough already. And that's not a shirt you wear on its own,† I protested. â€Å"It's meant to be tucked in under a blazer.† Julia rose from the chair. She tossed her hair; this was serious business. â€Å"No, no†¦ this might work.† She took the shirt from Jill and laid it across the jeans I'd set out. She studied it for a few moments and then returned to my closet – which was apparently free game for everyone. After a quick search, she pulled out a skinny leather belt with a tan snakeskin pattern. â€Å"I thought I remembered you wearing this.† She laid the belt over the white shirt and stepped back. After a bit more scrutiny, she gave it a nod of approval. The others crowded in to look. â€Å"Good eye,† said Kristin. â€Å"Hey, I found the shirt,† Jill reminded her. â€Å"I can't wear the shirt alone,† I said. I hoped my protests covered up my anxiety. Had I really been that off on the yellow shirt? I'd been certain it was date-appropriate. How was I going to survive tonight if I couldn't even dress right? â€Å"If you want to put a blazer on over it in this weather, be my guest,† said Julia. â€Å"But I don't think you have to worry about it showing too much. This wouldn't even be worth Mrs. Weathers's notice.† â€Å"Neither would the yellow blouse,† I pointed out. They decided my clothing was a done deal and moved on to hair and makeup advice. I drew the line there. I wore makeup every day – very nice, very expensive makeup applied to make the most of my features in a way that made it look as though I didn't even have makeup on. I wasn't going to change that natural look, no matter how adamantly Julia swore pink eye shadow would be â€Å"hot.† None of them put up much of a fight on my hair. It was currently in a layered cut that went just past my shoulders. There was exactly one way it could be styled, worn down with the layers carefully arranged with a hair dryer. Any other style looked messy, and of course, I already had it in the perfect configuration today. No point messing with a good thing. Besides, I think they were all too excited that I'd agreed to wear the white tank top – once I'd tried it on to verify that it wasn't transparent. My only nod to jewelry was my little gold cross. I fastened it around my neck and said a silent prayer that I'd get through this. Although Alchemists used crosses a lot, we weren't exactly part of any traditional Christian faith or practice. We had our own religious services and believed in God, that He was a great force of goodness and light that infused every bit of the universe. With all that responsibility, He probably didn't care much about one girl going on a date, but maybe He could spare a second to make sure it wasn't too painful. They all traipsed down the stairs with me when the time came for Brayden to pick me up. (Actually, it was a little earlier than the appointed time, but I hated being late.) The girls had all come up with reasons for needing to meet him, from Jill's â€Å"It's a family thing† to Kristin's â€Å"I can spot an asshole in five seconds.† I wasn't confident in that last one, seeing as she'd once speculated that Keith might be a good catch. All of them were also full of unsolicited advice. â€Å"You can split the cost of dinner or the play,† said Julia. â€Å"Not both. He needs to pick up the whole bill on one of them.† â€Å"Better if he pays for everything, though,† said Kristin. â€Å"Still order something, even if you don't want to eat it,† added Jill. â€Å"If he's buying dinner, you don't want to let him off cheap. He's gotta work for you.† â€Å"Where are you guys getting all of this?† I asked. â€Å"What does it matter if I – oh, come on.† We'd reached the lobby and found Eddie and Micah sitting on a bench together. They at least had the decency to look embarrassed. â€Å"Not you guys too,† I said. â€Å"I was just here to see Jill,† said Micah unconvincingly. â€Å"And I was here to, um†¦Ã¢â‚¬  Eddie faltered, and I held up a hand to stop him. â€Å"Don't bother. Honestly, I'm surprised Trey isn't here with a camera or something. I figured he'd want to immortalize every moment of this debacle of a – oh. Hey, over here.† I put on a smile as Brayden stepped into the lobby. Apparently I wasn't the only one who liked to be early. Brayden seemed a little surprised that I had an entourage. I couldn't blame him since I was kind of surprised I had one too. â€Å"It's nice to meet all of you,† said Brayden, friendly, even if a little bewildered. Eddie, while uncomfortable with Angeline's advances, could be perfectly outgoing in less bizarre social situations. He played up the brotherly role and shook Brayden's hand. â€Å"I hear you guys are seeing a play tonight.† â€Å"Yes,† said Brayden. â€Å"Although, I prefer the term drama. I've actually already seen this production, but I'd like to watch it again with an eye toward alternative forms of dramatic analysis. The standard Freytag method can get a little cliched after a while.† This left everyone speechless. Or maybe they were just trying to figure out what he'd said. Eddie glanced at me then back to Brayden. â€Å"Well. Something tells me you guys are going to have a great time together.† Once we were able to extract ourselves from my well-wishers Brayden said, â€Å"You have very†¦ devoted family and friends.† â€Å"Oh,† I said. â€Å"That. They just, uh, happened to all be going out together at the same time we were. To study.† Brayden glanced at his watch. â€Å"Not too late for that, I suppose. If I can, I always do my homework right after school because – â€Å" â€Å"If you put it off, you never know if something unexpected might happen?† â€Å"Exactly,† he said. He smiled at me. I smiled back. I followed him to visitor parking, over to a shiny, silver Ford Mustang. I nearly swooned. Immediately, I reached out and ran my hand along the car's smooth surface. â€Å"Nice,† I said. â€Å"Brand new, next model year. These new ones will never quite have the character of the classics, but they certainly make up for it in fuel economy and safety.† Brayden looked pleasantly surprised. â€Å"You know your cars.† â€Å"It's a hobby,† I admitted. â€Å"My mom is really into them.† When I'd first met Rose Hathaway, I'd had the incredible experience of driving a 1972 Citroen. Now I owned a Subaru named Latte. I loved it, but it wasn't exactly glamorous. â€Å"They're works of art and engineering.† I noticed then that Brayden had come with me to the passenger side. For half a second, I thought he expected me to drive. Maybe because I liked cars so much? But then, he opened the door and I realized he was waiting for me to get in. I did, trying to remember the last time a guy had opened a car door for me. My conclusion: never. Dinner wasn't fast food, but it wasn't anything fancy either. I wondered what Julia and Kristin's opinion would be on that. We ate at a very California type of cafe, that served all organic sandwiches and salads. Every menu item seemed to feature avocado. â€Å"I would've taken you somewhere nicer,† he told me. â€Å"But I didn't want to risk being late. The park's a few blocks away, so we should be able to get a good spot. I†¦ I hope that's okay?† He suddenly looked nervous. It was such a contrast to the confidence he had shown when talking about Shakespeare. I had to admit, it was kind of reassuring. I found myself relaxing a little bit. â€Å"If it's not, I'll find a better place – â€Å" â€Å"No, this is great,† I told him, glancing around the cafe's brightly lit dining room. It was one of those places where we ordered at a counter and then brought a number to our table. â€Å"I'd rather be early, anyway.† He'd paid for all of our food. I tried to make sense of the dating rules my friends had bombarded me with. â€Å"What do I owe you for my ticket?† I asked tentatively. Brayden looked surprised. â€Å"Nothing. It's on me.† He smiled tentatively back. â€Å"Thank you,† I said. So, he was paying. That would make Kristin happy, although it made me a little uneasy – through no fault of his. With the Alchemists, I was always the one picking up the bills and handling the paperwork. I wasn't used to someone else doing it. I guess I just had trouble shaking that feeling that I had to take care of everything because no one else could do it right. Academics had always been a breeze for me. But at Amberwood, learning how to hang out with people my own age in a normal way had been a much more difficult task. I'd gotten better, but it was still a struggle trying to figure out the proper things to say to my peers. With Brayden, there were no such problems. We had an endless supply of topics, both of us eager to put forth all we knew on anything and everything. Most of the meal was spent discussing the intricacies of the organic certification process. It was pretty awesome. Trouble came when, as we were finishing up, Brayden asked if I wanted to get dessert before we left. I froze, suddenly in a dilemma. Jill had said to make sure I ordered enough to not come across as a cheap date. Without even thinking about it, I'd ordered an inexpensive salad – simply because it sounded good. Was I now on the hook to order more so I'd seem like someone Brayden had to work for? Was this worth breaking all my own rules about sugar and dessert? And honestly, what did Jill know about dating etiquette anyway? Her last boyfriend had been homicidal, and her current one was oblivious to the fact that she was a vampire. â€Å"Uh, no thank you,† I said at last. â€Å"I'd rather make sure we get to the park on time.† He nodded as he rose from the table and gave me another smile. â€Å"I was thinking the same thing. Most people don't seem to think punctuality is that important.† â€Å"Important? It's essential,† I said. â€Å"I'm always at least ten minutes early.† Brayden's grin widened. â€Å"I aim for fifteen. To tell you the truth†¦ I really didn't want dessert anyway.† He held the door open for me as we stepped outside. â€Å"I try to avoid getting too much sugar.† I nearly came to a standstill in astonishment. â€Å"I totally agree – but my friends always give me a hard time about it.† Brayden nodded. â€Å"There are all sorts of reasons. People just don't get it, though.† I walked to the park, stunned. No one had ever understood me so quickly and easily. It was like he had read my mind. Palm Springs was a desert city, filled with long stretches of sandy vistas and stark, rocky mountain faces. But it was also a city that mankind had been shaping for a long time, and many places – Amberwood, for example – had been given lush, green makeovers in defiance of the natural climate. This park was no exception. It was a huge expanse of green lawn, ringed with leafy deciduous trees instead of the usual palms. A stage had been set up at one end, and people were already seeking out the best spots. We chose one in the shade that had a great view of the stage. Brayden took out a blanket to sit on from his backpack, along with a worn copy of Antony and Cleopatra. It was marked up with notes and sticky tabs. â€Å"Did you bring your own?† he asked me. â€Å"No,† I said. I couldn't help but be impressed. â€Å"I didn't bring many books from home when I moved here.† He hesitated, as though unsure he should say what he was thinking. â€Å"Do you want to read along with mine?† I'd honestly figured I would just watch the play, but the scholar in me could certainly see the perks of having the original text along. I was also curious about what kind of notes he'd made. It was only after I'd said yes that I realized why he was nervous. Reading along with him meant we had to sit very, very close together. â€Å"I won't bite,† he said, smiling when I didn't move right away. That broke the tension, and we managed to move into positions that allowed us both to see the book with almost no touching. There was no avoiding our knees brushing one another, but we both had jeans on, and it didn't make me feel like my virtue was at stake. Also, I couldn't help but notice he smelled like coffee – my favorite vice. That wasn't a bad thing. Not bad at all. Still, I was very conscious of being so close to someone. I didn't think I was getting any romantic vibes. My pulse didn't race; my heart didn't flutter. Mostly I was aware that this was the closest I'd sat to anyone, maybe in my life. I wasn't used to sharing my personal space so much. I soon forgot about that as the play started. Brayden might not like Shakespeare performed in modern clothing, but I thought they did an admirable job. Following along with the text, we caught a couple of spots where the actors messed up a line. We shot each other secret, triumphant looks, gleeful that we were in on something others didn't know about. I kept up with Brayden's annotations too, nodding at some and shaking my head at others. I couldn't wait until we discussed this on the ride home. We were all leaning forward intently during Cleopatra's dramatic death scene, intensely focused on her last lines. Off to my side, I heard the crinkling of paper. I ignored it and leaned forward further. The paper crinkled again, this time much louder. Looking over, I saw a group of guys sitting nearby who appeared to be about college-aged. Most of them were watching the performance, but one was holding an item wrapped in a brown paper bag. The bag was too big for the object and had been rolled down several times. He glanced around nervously, trying to be discreet and unroll the paper in small batches. It was obvious that was actually making more noise than if he'd just gone for it and unrolled it all at once. This went on for another minute, and by then, a few others nearby were glancing over at him. He finally managed to open the bag and then, still in slow motion, carefully lowered his hand inside. I heard the pop of a cap and the guy's face lit up in triumph. Still keeping the object concealed, he lifted the bag to his mouth and drank out of what was very obviously a bottle of beer or some other alcohol. It had been pretty apparent right away from the bag shape. I clapped a hand over my mouth, in an attempt to smother my laughter. He reminded me so much of Adrian. I could absolutely see Adrian smuggling in alcohol to an event like this and then going to all sorts of pains to be covert, thinking that if he just did everything slowly enough, no one would catch on to him. Adrian, too, would probably have the misfortune of opening the bottle right in the middle of the play's most tense scene. I could even picture a similarly delighted look on his face, one that said, No one knows what I'm doing! When, of course, we all knew. I didn't know why it made me laugh, but it did. Brayden was too focused on the play to notice. â€Å"Ooh,† he whispered to me. â€Å"This is a good part – where her handmaidens kill themselves.† The two of us had plenty to debate and analyze on the way back to Amberwood. I was almost disappointed when his car pulled up to my dorm. As we sat there, I realized we'd come to another critical dating milestone. What was the correct procedure here? Was he supposed to kiss me? Was I supposed to let him? Had that been the real price of my salad? Brayden seemed nervous too, and I braced myself for the worst. When I looked down at my hands in my lap, I noticed they were shaking. You can do this, I told myself. It's a rite of passage. I started to close my eyes, but when Brayden spoke, I opened them quickly. As it turned out, Brayden's buildup of courage wasn't for a kiss, so much as a question. â€Å"Would you†¦ would you like to go out again?† he asked, giving me a shy smile. I was surprised at the mix of emotions this triggered. Relief was foremost, of course. I'd now have time to research books on kissing too. At the same time, I was kind of disappointed that the swagger and confidence he'd shown in dramatic analysis didn't carry through here. Some part of me thought his line should've been more like, â€Å"Well, after that night of perfection, I guess we have no choice but to go out again.† Immediately, I felt stupid for such a sentiment. I had no business expecting him to be more at ease with this when I was sitting there with my hands shaking. â€Å"Sure,† I blurted out. He breathed a sigh of relief. â€Å"Cool,† he said. â€Å"I'll e-mail you.† â€Å"That'd be great.† I smiled. More awkward silence fell, and suddenly, I wondered if the kiss might be coming after all. â€Å"Do you†¦ do you want me to walk you to the door?† he asked. â€Å"What? Oh, no. Thank you. It's right there. I'll be fine. Thank you.† I realized I was on the verge of sounding like Jill. â€Å"Well, then,† said Brayden. â€Å"I had a really nice night. Looking forward to next time.† â€Å"Me too.† He held out his hand. I shook it. Then I left the car and went inside. I shook his hand? I replayed the moment in my head, feeling dumber and dumber. What is wrong with me? As I walked through the lobby, kind of dazed, I took out my cell phone to see if I had any messages. I'd turned it off tonight, figuring if ever there was a time I'd earned peace, this was it. To my astonishment, no one had needed anything in my absence, though there was one text message from Jill, sent about fifteen minutes ago: How was your date with Brandon? What's he like? I unlocked my dorm door and stepped inside. His name is Brayden, I texted back. I pondered the rest of her question and took a long time in trying to decide how to respond. He's just like me.

The Emergence of the Dark or Grief Tourism Phenomenon Essay

The Emergence of the Dark or Grief Tourism Phenomenon - Essay Example Today we hear of spiritual tourism, health tourism, casino tourism, sex tourism, adventure tourism and heritage tourism. If this was not enough today we have what is labeled the ‘dark’ or the ‘grief’ tourism. Postmodernism, tourism is more specialized and caters to tourists with all sorts of tastes. What exactly is the dark tourism and how does it affect the society and culture of the region? Uttering the word ‘tourism’ gives one a feeling of excitement and pleasure. The phrase dark tourism was coined in 1997 (MacMillan 2002) to describe the phenomenon of people traveling to the scene or place of disaster to see for themselves the place where it happened. There was a massive outpouring of public grief in the months following the death of Princess Diana in August 1997. People’s extravagant display of public sorrow for individuals they have never met led to the movement being called dark tourism. The words grief tourism and grief tourists were subsequently associated with visitors to the site in New York where the Twin Towers were demolished on 11th September 2001. It was in 2002 that the terms grief tourism and grief tourists first began to emerge as people flocked to Soham in Cambridgeshire following the deaths of two young schoolgirls, Holly Wells and Jessica Chapman, who were tragically murdered by the caretaker of their local school. Governments and other local authorities are faced with dilemmas regarding representation of sites associated with death and disaster in the context of tourism visits. Today a large number of sites associated with war, genocide, assassination and other tragic events have become significant tourist destinations. This phenomenon is called the dark tourism (John Lennon & Malcom Foley, November 2000). Places associated with death and catastrophe range from famous assassination sites such as Kennedy’s at  Dallas to concentration camps and Holocaust memorials.

Hacking the Accounting Information System Essay

Hacking the Accounting Information System - Essay Example These authorized personnel will for this reason have passwords and codes to access these document. Mostly these passwords to the system will be only available to heads of departments. These passwords can sometimes be breached by individuals with capability to unlock them and thus access some accounts. This act of illegally accessing accounts of a firm by breaching their password is what is referred to as hacking. These hackers usually illegally enter into these accounts with the intentions of getting confidential information of that particular firm either to help them counter competition illegally. Accounting system provides firms with a platform to record and document all their daily business transactions. In today’s technology environment, most firms choose to launch and keep their accounting system in modernized recording keeping platforms (Turner &. Weickgenannt, 2013). Accounting system can also be launched and kept through manual record keeping system though. Both manual and electronic systems come in with different benefits and challenges. Manual systems for example tend to be costly considering expenses and time needed to manage it. The manual system however provides a relatively better platform for understanding the underlying guideline of accounting (Turner & Weickgenannt, 2013). Electronic system on the other hand comes in handy in terms of speed of processing accounting data. These automated systems are never prone to mathematical errors. This error free attribute is due to the fact that in automated systems, the accountant just need to enter information and then the alternate steps like keeping up ledgers and accounts is performed from the prior information documented earlier. The automated systems are thus quicker and work well in recovering already stored data. Most advance firms tend to prefer this system to the manual system. The automated system is however often exposed to several sever danger like hacking (Turner & Weickgenannt,

Case analysis of Panera Bread Study Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1750 words

Analysis of Panera Bread - Case Study Example Specifically, the company has established 1,625 locations in 44 states and Canada (Panera Bread, â€Å"Company Overview†). The company started in 1981 as Au Bon Pain Company and proceeded to purchase St. Louis Bread Company in 1993, which was operating 20 bakeries in the St. Louis area, Missouri. Thereafter, different events contributed to Au Bon Pain Company selling all its business units although it retained Panera with the company renaming it Panera Bread Company in 1999 (Panera Bread, â€Å"Our History†). In effect, this company operates under the three banners mentioned earlier in this expose. The purpose of this analysis is to inform the reader about the situation at Panera Bread. To achieve this, this analysis will identify the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats in Panera Bread. Finally, the analysis will include the current financial situation in the company. Industry Analysis Before carrying out a SWOT analysis of Panera Bread, it is important to conduct an industrial analysis of the company. In line with this, it is crucial to point out that Panera Bread’s operations are in  the competitive restaurant industry. ... McDonald’s, Wendy’s, Burger King and cafes such as New World Restaurant and Starbucks, Panera Bread ensures that its products are of higher quality than those of all these competitors. In this case, the health conscious nature of the world’s population has made it a necessity for companies to engage in production of healthy products. To underline the strategy of Panera Bread Company’s focus on healthy products, a study conducted this year identified Panera Bread as the fast food of choice for customers who were health conscious. The study by Scarborough revealed, â€Å"Health-conscious consumers who have had fast food in the past 30 days are more than twice as likely to dine at Panera Bread for lunch† (â€Å"Health-Conscious†). In effect, this implies that the company was on the right track towards capturing this important and ever-growing segment of the population that was health conscious. On the other hand, Panera Bread is a company smalle r than McDonald’s, Wendy’s, and Burger King, which puts the company at a strategic position since the market leaders’ expansion strategy aims at international markets. Hence, Panera Bread can work on differentiating its products in order to achieve market edge over its competitors. Panera Bread’s Strategy Panera Bread’s strategy involves a number of different approaches in business. Importantly, the company’s menu tries to implement the company’s strategy of providing a diverse menu with an ambience that invites customers. In this case, the company’s deli menu contains a variety of products that range from soup to freshly-ground coffee, sandwiches, and freshly baked bread. In effect, the menu intends to fit the needs of people who did not have time to eat in conventional restaurants with the foundation and

Differentiation of Microorganisms Lab Report Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1000 words

Differentiation of Microorganisms - Lab Report Example The researcher tells that in culture media experiment the test included a synthetic medium, tryptic soy broth, SF broth, Macconkey Agar, and nutrient agar. The liquid media like the nutrient broth was used in the reproduction and isolation of organisms. McConkey Agar was a solid medium that examined colony morphology and the isolation of the organisms. Most of the culture media were complex; their chemical composition was unknown. Additionally, the culture media were selective. They selected certain microbe types by supplying the growth conditions. An example of this media was SF medium; it was designed to select Enterococcus faecallis in warm-blooded animals. In Enzymes experiment, the tests included the Caseinase which hydrolyzed casein to peptides to amino acids, gelatinase hydrolyzed gelatin, and   Catalase protected the cells from the hydrogen peroxide. In addition, Oxidase indicated the presence of cytochrome in the microorganisms, during oxidation the compounds turned red or blue. In fermentation experiment, the fermentable compounds were sugar (glucose, sucrose, and lactose). Consequently, an indicator dye was used to change the color from red to a yellow color when the PH is below 7. In motility, experiment flagellum was used a bacterial motility. The experiment used several ways to determine motility i.e. hanging drop and motility agar. In the course of the experiment, if the culture tested is strict aerobe, then growth will occur on the tube surface. The hanging drop slide was used in motility viewing when the oxygen is depleted. In the experiment that dealt with differentiation of enteric bacteria, most bacteria used were facultative anaerobes and anaerobes. The enteric bacteria used here encompassed facultative anaerobic rods, gram negative, and non-spore forming bacteria. The Coliforms were characterized by their fermenting ability. Other tests that were used to identify the enteric bacteria included H2S, KCN, MB agar, TSI agar, SS agar, and MacConkey agar. Discussion The culture media experiment used the following microorganism: Escherichis Coli, Enterococcus faecalis, and Pseudomonas aeruginosa. The two culture media in the experiment were synthetic medium and tryptic Soy Broth. The

Globalization and the British East India Company Essay

Globalization and the British East India Company - Essay Example However, the historical origin of globalization has ever remained a subject of debate among the historians. In most cases or usage, globalization is the period that began in the 1970s, where some scholars consider that this period began longer than historians exactly locate, and it encompassed all the extra-nation activities. The history of globalization has little to do with the British East India Company. It is regarded that the most proponent of the historical origin of globalization lies with Andre Gunder Frank. He was an economist and was as well associated with the independent theory (Malik 22). According to Frank, globalization began with the rise of global trading links between the Indus valley Civilization and the Sumer back in the third millennium B.C. What was considered archaic globalization had its existence in the Hellenistic Age, the period that was marked with commercialized development of urban centers, which marked the axial of Greek culture whose influences reached Spain from India. Other cities that felt the impacts of the early globalization include Roman Empire, Han Dynasty, and Parthian empire. The increasing commercial trade links between these powers were experienced in the Silk Road. This road started in China then stretched out to the boundaries of Parthian Empire and later moved to Rome (Malik 49). From the archaic period, globalization move to another phase that was described by Islamic and Mongol eras. During this period, the Muslim and Jewish traders and explorers founded trade routes that led to agricultural globalization, trade, knowledge, and technology globalization. This period was marked with the introduction and wide spread of crops including cotton and sugar that were cultivated almost all over the Muslim world, while knowledge spread widely to the Hajj and Arabic world that led to the cosmopolitan culture (Malik 27). The Mongol empire though had a destabilizing effect to the commercial centers with the Middle East and chi na; it significantly influenced or facilitated movement along Silk Road (Malik 153). Pax Mongolica of the 13th century was marked with the introduction of the first international postal service, and the rapid transition and spread of epidemic diseases including bubonic plague that substantially affected Central Asia. The Mongol era played a vital part in the globalization up to the sixteenth century; however, the largest trade systems were limited to the Eurasia (Malik 56). The Maritime Europe later replaced the Mongol period. The Maritime Europe phase, which was also known as proto-globalization was defined by the rise in the Empire of the European Maritime that took place in the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries. The era saw the rise in the first Spanish and Portuguese Empires and later the rising of the British and Dutch Empires (Malik 77). In the seventeenth century, globalization was highly developed, and greater globalization organization became chartered companies. For inst ance, in the year 1600, the British East India Company was founded as the first multinational corporation. Later in 1602, the Dutch India Company was established. The British India Company was founded after the treaty of union as an early English joint- stock company. This organization was primarily formed to pursue trade with the East Indies; however, it ended up trading within the Indian Subcontinent and sometimes stretched its trades to China. Therefore, it is

Learning log and application activities Assignment

Learning log and application activities - Assignment Example Therefore, as other children spoke with their parents it was as if they were back biting me since I was not able to understand what they were talking about. When I went to school, I realized that both teachers and students spoke different languages but the official language of communication in school was English. In most cases teachers could make a lot of corrections on students for instance if we pronounced â€Å"angry† instead of â€Å"hungry†. Personal Plan for Language Development Year Objective Activity Resources Jan –May 2013 To obtain language proficiency in English Attending English classes in order to be proficient in the language. Practicing speaking English all the time as well as encouraging those whom you are talking with to speak so as to perfect the art of speaking. It can also be done by reading novelty story books which are rich in English content. Listening to English programs also helps in improving the proficiency of the language. Tuition and exam fees required to facilitate class attendance. Allocating time to practicing on how to speak English. Money to purchase story books and other learning materials. June- August 2013 To gain experience on English language Attending attachment to English speaking organizations. Lecturing in learning institutions that teach English. Attending organized workshops and seminars that encourage English speaking. Participating in public speaking competitions. Writing of poems, songs and plays in English language. Money to facilitate transportation to various institutions. Letters to various institutions for permission to lecture. Literature books to enhance knowledge of public speaking and language development. September- December 2013 To wind up English course. To perfect the art of speaking English language Self evaluation on the extent of how English language has been mastered and practiced by doing various examinations. Getting recommendations from various stakeholders. Revising on the things learned both in and out of class Time taken to evaluate oneself. Money used travel to various institutions in searching for recommendations. Part B Formal letter Managing Director, Logistaid Company, P.o Box 2535-0009, Slovakia. 15 December, 2012. The Human Resource Manager, English Learning Resource Centre, P.o Box 27787-00065, Logos. Dear sir/Madam, Re: Appreciation I would like to thank you for attending our gala dinner, that was organized in aid of raising money, to enhance our educational programs and we appreciate your contribution for the same. We were able to raise $ 100, 000 which we saw as a success. Our organization is also pleased to inform you that you have been chosen to promote the new Logistaid program, which is aimed at promoting education especially to foreign students. In line with this, we have organized for workshops and seminars to enhance our scheduled activities which will be due in two weeks time. You are therefore invited for the preparation which w ill take place on 20th December 2012 at offices from 2.00 p.m. Your presence and participation is highly appreciated. Thanks in advance. Yours faithfully, Press officer For Managing Director UNIT 2 PART A Training Plan Training requirements To gather the right skills and competencies Training schedule To train after every three months to refresh the knowledge Training materials It includes seminars, workbooks, presentations, user manuals, use of computer

Paraphrasing Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 750 words - 6

Paraphrasing - Essay Example This question actually merits a deeper introspection for it is complex and sophisticated. Linear reasoning methods seem to provide fewer clues when it comes to having a good answer. It is clear, however, that people who have gone to universities show varied results that require a closer and deeper scrutiny. This is especially true when comparing the experiences of men and women who achieved college degree and gained relative professional success only to fail when it came to creating meaningful personal relationship in the real world. If Newman is to be believed, universities are tasked with the role of creating men and women who will have a ‘philosophical habit’ that encourages ‘freedom, equitableness, calmness, moderation and wisdom’ (Newman, 1852, p.53). Many universities have succeeded in doing this to many of those admitted therein. As such, universities prepare young people to be ready to face and survive the real world, and can be observed that those who have university degree or college education are the ones who are the most timid and more docile people in the world. These people are law-abiding citizens, who know what to do and not to do in regards to following the law. These university graduates are people characterized as having education that taught them how to conform to the society. This definition of universities by Newman is applicable to both men and women; yet, some argue that women need different education systems. It must be remembered that Adrienne Rich (1979) stated that women educational needs are different from men. Also, Rich said in her 1979 speech â€Å"No women’s college today is providing young women with the education they need for survival as whole people in a world which denies woman wholeness† (p.74). This is based on the new school of thought separating and giving women identity from what many conceive based on

A)The impact of misrepresentation, mistake, duress and undue influence Essay

A)The impact of misrepresentation, mistake, duress and undue influence on the validity of a contract.b)The circumstances in whic - Essay Example For a statement to be actionable misrepresentation, it must satisfy several requirements: it must be a statement by one party of a contract, to the other party. A misrepresentation by a third party, as a general rule, shall have no effect to the contract. The statement must have been of an existing fact or law, but not an opinion (Bisset v Wilkinson). Finally, the misrepresentation must have formed part of the reason why the claimant entered into the contract. The effect of misrepresentation in a contract generally, is that it makes the contract voidable at the option of the innocent party. That is, the contract remains valid, but may be set aside by the innocent party. However, the remedy available to the innocent party depends on the type of misrepresentation. There are three types of misrepresentation: Innocent misrepresentation, negligent misrepresentation and fraudulent misrepresentation. Once one has established presence of misrepresentation, the next course of action is to det ermine the type of misrepresentation in order to determine the remedy available. There are several remedies available. The contract may be rescinded under the common law; damages may be recovered under the Misrepresentation Act 1967: the tort of deceit can provide further avenues to claim damages. Rescission is available for all types of misrepresentation. Rescission involves returning the parties to their pre-contractual position, as though the contract was never entered into; any party that has already gained benefit is required to make it up for the other party. The injured party may rescind the contract by giving notice to the injured party or by any act evidencing rescission. However, rescission is an equitable remedy, given at the discretion of the court. Some things act as a bar to rescission. They include where the injured party affirms the contract by, with full knowledge of misrepresentation, they expressly state they wish to proceed with the contract. Secondly, where the innocent party fails to take action within a reasonable time, the equitable right is lost. Finally, the court will not order rescission if restitution in integrum is impossible: that is, the parties cannot be restored to their original positions. Secondly, the injured party may recover damages under the tort of deceit. This happens if there is fraudulent misrepresentation. Additionally, for negligent misrepresentation, the injured party may recover under the tort of negligent misstatement. In Royscott v Rogerson [1991] 2 QB 297, it was held that the principle of fraudulent misrepresentation under the tort of deceit also applies to negligent misrepresentation. The purpose of damages is to restore the innocent party to their pre-contractual position. The injured party recovers all the direct loss incurred as result of the fraudulent misrepresentation. If there is innocent misrepresentation, the remedies available is rescission or damages in lieu of rescission. The innocent party canno t claim both. Mistake Mistake exists when one or both parties to the contract believe that an event or a condition exists when in reality it does not. One of the key requirements of existent of a contract is that the parties must be at consensus ad idem, that is, both parties must have a uniform understanding on the terms of the contract. Mistake negates the presence of a common mind understanding meaning that

The adventure of the speckled band Essay Example for Free

The adventure of the speckled band Essay These stories, whilst written in the 19 century, still seem very relevant today. In this age where terrorism is a constant threat, it is easy to believe that we are the first generation to experience these fears. However, these stories give us an excellent reminder that we are not the first, and that these threats have been with us for many years; they have also been well documented and explored. Before reading these stories, I believed that these stories would be very remote, as the 19th century setting would be too early for me to easily relate too. However, as I read the stories, I started to realise that they were very relevant indeed. It was very easy to relate the poison of the swamp adder in Conan Doyles, Adventure of the speckled band, to ricin, which we are so aware of today due to the finding of the poison in London. Both poisons would also not normally show up on an autopsy, but a few milligrams of it could still kill many men. I also spotted very quickly the similarities in HG Wells, The stolen Bacillus, to the possibility of Biological attacks on many cities, such as the possibility of attacks on major cities with airborne spores, like anthrax. Whilst, in the story, it turns out that the visitor, as he is referred to, has not taken the deadly cholera bacillus, I found the vivid description of how the disease would, go hither and thithertake the husband from the wife, the child from its mother, absolutely terrifying, simply because of the sheer detail in which it is described. The personification which is used to help describe the pestilence also helps make the disease more terrifying, as if it is made to seem like a person is doing these terrible deeds, it can do so calculatingly and even more evilly. This personification is very well illustrated in the way that the bacteriologist constantly refers to the cholera as, he, in his rhetoric. We are also told how, he would creep through the streets, picking out and punishing a house. These very human characteristics show that the bacterium should be feared, as a person rather than a micro-organism. An issue which I feel is related to that of terrorism, and which is mentioned in Wells novel is that of immigration. There is a growing concern about letting people into our country, partly due to the fear of terrorism. This can, unfortunately, greatly promote racism against people of an Arabic origin. Whilst the immigrant becoming a criminal in this story is not of Arabic origin, he is clearly not a native to the British isles:  Certainly the man was not a Teutonic type, nor a common Latin one. This not only shows the problem of immigrants turning to crime, but also that of discrimination against them. Whilst it could be argued that no discrimination occurred, as the Bacteriologist let him into his lab, I feel that as it is only after, musing on the ethnology of his visitor, that he started to panic, as he did not trust foreigners. This illustrates that immigration and discrimination against immigrants was as much a problem in the 19th century as it is today. Another issue that is very relevant to the 21st century is that of womens rights. Whilst the spice girls, and other girl power related groups were formed in the 20th century, many girls raised listening to the spice girls will soon be adults with a significant say in our society, such as the right to vote. We have also seen many court cases in the past few years relating to sexism and unfair dismissal cases. However, I believe that these issues are brushed upon even this early in these stories, which, considering the time they were written in, is somewhat impressive. For example, the womens suffrage movements only appeared in the early 1900s, so these books evidently show that both authors were somewhat ahead of their time. The issue of sexism is clearly raised in Wells novel when the bacteriologist is running down the street and his wife is chasing him in a dog-cart. The off-duty dog-cart drivers see this and are evidently very aware that she is female, as they say that, Shes a following him. Usually the other way round. This shows that the woman could never be seen as a person, at least not by the common taxi drivers, who are shown to be common by their dialect; she was simply something to be chased. I think that the fact that Minnie is also following the bacteriologist simply to give him his hat is significant, as it shows that she is solely concerned about her husband, and therefore her image. This seems to show that she has nothing important to do and has no job. Women are therefore presented as somewhat inferior, at least to the 21st century reader, as this may have been the norm in the 19th century. This sexism is also shown in, The adventures of the speckled band, as women are simply expected to marry as a matter of course, and have to ask their fathers for permission to do so. This shows that women were seen to be reliant on men in order to survive. I also believe that it is relevant that Helen has no job in this story; she simply survives using money from her stepfather and mother. She also clearly has nothing else to do but look pretty and marry. This sexism is clearly something that the 21st century reader can identify with, and can also help the reader not becoming alienated from the 19th century setting.  Domestic violence is another thing which is still as relevant today as it was over 100 years ago. Domestic violence is shown in Conan Doyles story when Helen is beaten by her stepfather. As Holmes says in the story, she has been cruelly used, when he notices a hand mark on her wrist. As domestic violence is, clearly, an issue which still effects us today, I believe that this is certainly an issue relevant to the 21st century.

Looking At The Implications Of Teenage Pregnancy Social Work Essay

Looking At The Implications Of Teenage Pregnancy Social Work Essay The rate of teenage pregnancy has decreased greatly within the past years but it is still an immense problem which needs addressing. Pregnancy rates in the United States are still higher than those in other industrialized nations à ¢Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬ this is the case even though American teens are no more sexually active than teenagers of other nations. Recent statistics concerning the teen birthrates are alarming. About 560,000 teenage girls give birth each year. Almost one-sixth of all births in the United States are to teenage women and eight in ten of them are of unintended and unanticipated pregnancies. By the age of eighteen, one out of four teenage girls will have become pregnant. The rate of teenage pregnancies may be high among low income African-American, Hispanics, and those in inner city ghettos; it is higher still among poor, white, young women who live in small cities. The question of which teenager is most likely to become pregnant can be answered by knowing attitudes towards the social consequences of adolescent parenthood. Those individuals understanding that parenthood at an early age will limit their chances of education; will most likely be influenced to not have an unplanned pregnancy, if they are highly motivated to become professionals in the future. The higher a womans level of education, the more likely she is to postpone marriage and childbearing. Adolescents with little schooling are often twice as likely as those with more education to have a baby before their twentieth birthday. Some 58% of young women in the United States who receive less than a high school education give birth by the time they are twenty years old, compared with 13% of young women who complete at least twelve years of schooling. Young women who become pregnant who become pregnant during high school are more likely to drop out due to the excessive workload which is hard to balance. A teen mother leaves school because she cannot manage the task of caring for a baby and studying, and a teen father usually chooses a job over school so that he can pay bills and provide for his child. Teen mothers usually have fewer resources than older mothers because they have had less time to gather savings or build their resumes through work experience, education, or training. Because of this, teen mothers are generally poor and are dependent on government support. The welfare system is usually the only support a teen parent will receive. Welfare benefits are higher for families with absent fathers or dependent children. Emotional stress is also another issue which teenage mothers have to deal with along with financial strains. Teen mothers may have limited social contacts and friendships because they do not have time for anything other than their baby. Lack of a social life and time for herself may cause the teenage mother to become depressed or have severe mental anxiety. Depression may become worse for a teenage mother because she usually does not know much about child development or about how to care for their children. Children who are born to teenage mothers usually suffer from poor parenting. Also, children of teenage parents start being sexually active before their peers and they are more likely to become teenage parents themselves. These children may also suffer from financial difficulties similar to that of their parents. Children whose mothers are age seventeen or younger are three times as likely as their peers to be poor, and are likely to stay poor for a longer period of time. Children born to teenage mothers are also at an intellectual disadvantage. Teen mothers face greater health risks than older mothers, such as anemia, pregnancy induced hypertension, toxemia, premature delivery, cervical trauma, and even death. Many of these health risks are due to inadequate prenatal care and support, rather than physical immaturity. The teenage mother is more likely to be undernourished and suffer premature and prolonged labor. Death rate from pregnancy complications are much higher among girls who give birth under age fifteen. Poor eating habits, smoking, alcohol and drugs increase the risk of having a baby with health problems. The younger the teenage mother is, the higher the chances are that she and her baby will have health problems. This is mainly due to late prenatal care, if any, and poor nutrition. An adolescent mother and her baby may not get enough nutrients and, because the mothers body is not fully mature, and thus she may have many complications throughout the duration of her pregnancy. Along with the mother, the children of teenage parents too often become part of a cycle of poor health, school failure, and poverty. Infants born to teenage mothers are at a high risk of prematurity, fragile health, the need for intensive care, cerebral palsy, epilepsy, and mental retardation. Low birth weight is the most immediate health problem. Babies born to teenagers are often born too small, too soon. The death rate for babies whose mothers are under fifteen years of age is double that of babies whose mothers are twenty to thirty years old. Some research indicates that the percentage of teenage birthrates has declined simply because fewer teenagers are having sexual intercourse and more adolescents are using contraceptives. Researchers say that the recent trends in sexual activity and contraceptive use are the result of a number of factors, including greater emphasis on abstinence, more conservative attitudes about sex, fear of contracting sexually transmitted diseases, the popularity of long-lasting birth control methods such as the contraceptive implant, Norplant, the injectable Depo-Provera, and even because of the economy. In addition, researchers state that young people have become somewhat more conservative in their views about casual sex and out-of-wedlock childbearing. Some attribute this change in attitude mainly to concern about sexually transmitted diseases. Others say that it is because of the involvement of conservative religious groups in the public debate over sexual behavior. Many researchers believe tha t the strong economy and the increasing availability of jobs at minimum wage have contributed to fewer births among teenagers. Americans, however, seem to be against some of the methods used by these various organizations to reduce the teen pregnancy rates. The most controversial aspect of adolescent pregnancy prevention is the growing movement to provide teenagers with easy access to contraceptives. Teenage pregnancy does cause many problems for the mother, child, and economy. There are, however, some incidences where the mother overcomes this down-hill trend and makes a successful life for her and her child. The outcome of teenage pregnancy turns out better if the mother goes back to school after she has given birth. Staying in school may help to prevent teenage mothers from having a second pregnancy. The outcome is also better if the mother continues to live with her parents so that they can help to raise the child. Young, teen mothers need health care for themselves as well as their children. An adolescent mother also needs a great deal of encouragement to get her to remain in school. Single teenage mothers also need job training so that they can get a good job to support themselves and their children. Teen mothers need to be taught parenting and life-management skills and also need high quality and affordable daycare for their children. Schools that provide daycare centers on campus reduce the incidence of teenagers dropping out of school. These school programs also decrease the likelihood that the teen mother will have more children. Because the government has begun to take action in preventing teen pregnancies, the rate has continued to decline. The large numbers of young people in Americaas well as the values, health, education, skills they gainwill greatly affect the future of society. The levels of education available to younger individuals is much greater than that which was available to their parents and the expectation is that young people take the opportunity and initiative to obtain higher levels of education. The numbers of women become pregnant during their teenage years is declining, although slowly, as many young women recognize the impact which childbearing has on education. It has also decreased as parents and communities discourage sexual activity, marriage and motherhood at young ages. These recent trends will most likely educate young adolescent teenagers about the consequences and risks of teenage pregnancy and reduce the incidence of teen pregnancy and childbirth altogether if continued.

Various factors which will affect the grain markets

Various factors which will affect the grain markets Stopford (2009, p.1) says that forecasting is not an impossible task, but successful forecasting calls for a bit of smoke and mirrors. Forecasting is important because it helps the business to prepare for the future. This essay will forecast the grain shipping markets by analysing various factors which will affect the grain markets. This essay will forecast for the next 3 months as current grain crop year finishes in June 2010. The grain trades are unpredictable, with the tonnage requiring shipment hugely dependent on the size of harvests in the producing regions, and in those consuming countries whose imports largely depend on the size of their own crops. It is a trade where the flexibility of sea transport really counts. This essay will look into various supply and demand factors affecting the shipping industry by giving previous statistical data and then analyse and forecast the data for the supply and demand factors. BACKGROUND OF TOPIC The history of grain trade is as old as the birth of civilisation. International shipment of grain was also present during the ancient Greece and roman empires. In the modern days grain trading plays an important role in the global economy and governments have a special claim over the grain. Grain has an economic and political importance and is also one of the major issues while policy making (Atkin, 1995). Grain in essence means wheat, corn (Maize) etc. Soya bean is also considered grain as categorised in International grain code. Soya bean market will not be considered in this essay. Grain is shipped mainly my handy size and panamax size ships, very rarely capsize ships are used. (Atkin, 1995 and Genco Shipping, 2010) There are mainly five big players in the grain industry such as Cargill and they account to almost three-quarters of the world grain shipment (Atkin, 1995). Grain is traditionally exported from America and Argentina while importing nations are Japan, Middle East natio ns. Grain trade routes have changed in recent times because of industrialisation and technology advancement. The changes in trade routes are because of availability of information from leading indicators and traders can forecast the grain production. Some of the key leading indicators are the Baltic dry index which gives the reflection of the freight rates of commodities (Iron ore, coal, grain) that are shipped around the world. Another good indicator for grain is the IGC grain freight index (FAO, 2009). It is similar to BDI but is calculated only for grain cargo. Grain trading information is available on the FAO, Grain council, UNCTAD and USDA websites. Source: Noble group, 2010 FORECASTING AND ANALYSIS OF GRAIN MARKET Forecasting shipping market is concerned with the futures of the markets as a whole. Forecasting looks at the external environment in which a shipping company operates. The main objective is to examine the world grain market and prepare a forecast for the next three months. Overall supply and demand factors statistical analysis will be done and how these factors will affect the freight rate markets will be analysed (Stopford, 1997). Prior to making an analysis it is very important to understand the business cycle of shipping industry. As per Stopford, 1997, p.42 it is a process by which the market co-ordinates supply with changes in demand by means of familiar cycle of booms and slumps. When forecasting the shipping market understanding of business cycle is very important. There are four stages of cycle as shown in the diagram (Stopford, 1997). Traders should understand the stages of shipping cycles and accordingly plan their decisions. Stages in Dry Market cargo cycle Source: Stopford, 1997 Key Indicators Baltic Dry index (BDI) is a key indicator for bulk trade and is an economic indicator for future trades. The business cycle is analysed by using the BDI. BDI shows for all dry bulk cargoes and for all trade routes. Another key indicator is the Grain Freight Index (GFI). It takes into consideration only grain cargoes. It is composed of 15 major grain routes, representing the main grade trade flows. Cape size vessels are not included only handy size and panamax vessels are included in the calculation of GFI. (FAO, 2009) Source: FAO, 2009 CURVE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND IN TRAMP SHIPPING Shipping industry is a derived demand. There are various factors which affect the shipping markets. The supply demand model explains the various factors which affect the shipping industry. The graph below shows the supply and demand curves in tramp shipping. Demand for shipping grain in short term is in-elastic as grain is a basic necessity. But if the price of shipping increases then in the longer run the importer looks for alternative options (Volk, 2002). Supply is mainly related to number of ships in the market, and available ships for transporting cargo. Normally in liner trade the supply curve starts off with minimum rate and in good market conditions where supply of ships is less than demand the curve rises, but it remains there for a short span (Volk, 2002). Analysis of these supply and demand factors is very essential to understand the shipping market and prepare a forecast. Source: (Volk, 2002). The graph shows the relationship between demand and supply in grain trading. Increase in demand during bad market conditions (D1 to D2) does not have influence on freight rate (P1 and P2) as sufficient tonnage is available. The increase in demand (D3 to D4) leads to a significant rate increase (P3 to P4) (Volk, 2002). ANALYSIS OF DEMAND SIDE FACTORS The world economy The world economy plays a very important role in influencing the ships demand. There is a very close relationship between countries becoming wealthier and increase in demand for grain transport by sea. Hence understanding of the global economy is important to judge the trends in the grain trade. (Stopford, 1997).The world GDP is increasing every year and as per statistics from IMF in 2008 the world GDP increased by 3.0 % and in 2009 it decreased by -0.8%. In the emerging economies like China 8.7% and India 5.6% GDP growth is enormous and the countries are developing fast (IMF, 2010). As can be seen from the diagram below, as the countries develops economically the demand for commodities traded by sea increases. It is a cyclic process where the increase in seaborne trade helps the countries to economic growth and the world markets grow. More over globalisation has also resulted in growth of seaborne trade. (Stopford, 1997). Source: Author generated China and India also have a very high population. The capacity of developing countries especially China and India to consume basic foodstuff such as bread have increased. Hence it has directly affected the global consumption of grain and hence the increase in trade (Atkin, 1995). As countries get wealthier they also tend to change their dietary patterns. The demand for meat is increasing every year. This is directly affecting the coarse grain trade (USDA, 2008). Almost 70% of coarse grain consumption is in the form of animal feed (Atkin, 1995). Seaborne commodity trades Grain accounts to about 7% of the world seaborne trade as per Clarksons (2008 cited in Scott, 2010). Grain trade is driven by production and consumption trends in different areas of the world, by the local weather conditions and crop yields and changing pattern of food consumption. Grain is also used for making bread or pasta or feed to animals to produce meat (ICS, 2004). Grain is grown very widely around the world. In the northern hemisphere there is USA, Canada European union and in the southern hemisphere there is Argentina and Australia. Hence harvests are crops reach seaborne trade throughout the year (Genco Shipping, 2010). Most of the grain grown in China and India is used for local consumption and hence it does not affect the seaborne trade. Countries like USA produce grain for exporting stock up the grain in SILOS which also helps the grain trade to flow throughout the year (Atkin, 1995 and IGC, 2010). Worlds grain trade has increased over the year s, as per current data the trade has increased from 215 million tons in 2005/06 to 239 million tons in 2007/08 (FAO, 2009). Source: Clarkson 2008 cited in Scott 2010. There are seasonal variations due to climatic conditions and difference in productivity of soil (Atkin, 1995). Seaborne grain trade is also affected by natural calamities, earthquakes such as one in Haiti in 2010. Other Factors such as a drought or flood in China may force the country in the one or other year to import grain from the USA (Volk, 2002). Over the years the grain production is associated with instability in production. This is result of extensive spread of high yield seeds and cultivation technology. This has resulted in farmers in different regions are exposed to similar problems like fertilizer prices, crop disease (Atkin, 1995). The seaborne trade of grain also depends upon which part of the world is good harvest of which type and quality of grain (Atkin, 1995). Majority of the produced grain crop is used for domestic consumption as is the case with India and China. Countries such as USA and Australia produce grain only for exporting (Atkin, 1995). As per statistics from IGC total grain production for year 07/08 was 1697 million tons out of which only 239 million tons was traded in the world market (FAO, 2009). Grain statistics is calculated for the crop year starting from June every year. Hence the data available for forecasting will be only till June 2010 because of the harvest season. (Scott, 2010) As grain production depends upon so many factors it is difficult to get an outlook in future because of the current growing season in the northern hemisphere which is influential in forecasting of grain. International grain council publishes its grain forecast only after June every year (Scott, 2010). Average haul Demand for sea transport is directly related to distance over which the cargo is shipped. Sea transport demand is measured in tonne mile. Ton mile = Tonnage of cargo shipped x Average distance over which it is transported Source: UNCTAD, 2009, p.30 As seen from the above table the world seaborne trade for grain in ton-mile has increased over the years from 475 billion ton-mile in 1970 to 2,029 billion ton-mile in 2008. The average haul for grain has increased over the years which are directly affecting the demand for ships (Platou, 2010). Transport of grains and soybeans were also longer in 2009, mainly due to increased Asian sourcing from Atlantic exporters. (Platou, 2010, p.22). Political events and Agricultural policies Political events indirectly affect the demand for transport of grain cargoes. The impacts of wars will affect the trade for a short term. Political embargo such as, The grain embargo, introduced by the United States on the USSR after the invasion of Afghanistan, reduced Russian grain supplies by about six million tonnes in 1979/80. This affected a change in the grain trade as Russia had to buy grain from other nations such as Canada, Australia and EU (Tarrant, 2002). Agricultural policies in countries also affect the world grain market. Policies made directly affect the production of grain and it also protects the farmers from the world market conditions (ATkin,1995). India had imposed a grain export ban because it wanted to use the produced grain for its internal market. India which is the second largest producer of wheat is now planning to lift the ban on exports because this year wheat output is going to be more than required for local consumption. Hence in the interest of the country India will open its grain markets to the world. (Hellenic shipping news, 2010). Key players in grain trade There are five major international grain trading companies. These players account to three-quarters of the grain shipped internationally. Hence these companies have the power to manage the physical flow of grain from farmer to consumer (Atkin, 1995). The shipping part of grain is very complex and is also very risky. Grain is traded extremely widely and hence informational network need to operate on a global scale. The big grain companies have information systems which provide them information from every country. Their agents are located in every significant grain producing, exporting, and importing nation, monitoring the weather, economic trends, crop conditions and political development. Hence the economics of scale deter new entrant from entering into the grain market. Hence these big companies can be influential in affecting the markets (Atkin, 1995). ANALYSIS OF SUPPLY SIDE FACTORS The supply side factors mainly consist of the ships which are available and operating in the market. The supply of ships is mainly controlled by four decision makers, Ship owners, charterers, bankers and various regulatory authorities which make rules. The supply of shipping capacity depends upon the judgment made by these players. To understand this first we will discuss the supply side factors and how they are influence by the freight rates. World fleet Historically grain cargo is carried onboard general cargo ships. By the late 1950s bulk carriers appeared into the shipping market. Eventually there where ships built which could carry grain cargo. These ships construction was such that they had self trimming holds which would make them safer to carry grain in bulk. The use of large bulk carriers was instrumental in growth of bulk trade. For grain transportation handy max and panama ships are normally used, but on some occasions cape size bulk carriers are also used (Stopford, 1997). There has been rapid change in the size of the bulk fleet and with new technology and designs such as self un-loaders coming up investors have to make complex decision when ordering new ships. As can be seen from the table the bulk merchant fleet has grown from 276 m dwt in 2000 to 418 million dwt in 2009 (UNCATAD, 2009). The panamax ships have increased from 65.4 m dwt in 1999 to 121.1 m dwt in 2009 while the handy max market has increased f rom 45.3 m dwt in 1999 to 91.9 m dwt in 2009. (Clarksons, 2010 cited in Scott, 2010) Source: (Lloyds Register Fairplay cited in UNCTAD, 2009) Fleet productivity Fleet productivity is calculated to understand the condition of the current markets. The fleets operating performance changes in response to market conditions such as E.g. If market is favourable then a grain carrier ship after completing its loaded voyage can carry cargo during its return voyages. This will increase the productivity of ships. As can be seen from the graph below the ton-mile per deadweight of the bulk fleet has not changed over the past couple of years. This is mainly because of good market conditions in the last three years. Source: UNCTAD, 2009, p.94 Ship building production New ships added into the fleet plays an important part in the supply and demand markets. This helps to level out the demand or it can also cause oversupply of ships. New ships added into the market do not create a short term effect but it is a long term effect. For ships to be built and to deliver time taken is as much as from 6months to 4years. Hence orders for ships are placed as per the estimate demand for cargo. During the bulk carrier building boom in mid-1980s bulk carriers had developed a dominant role in shipbuilding, which resulted in overproduction and surplus of ships. The dry-bulk market new building market has been comparatively stable as compared to the tanker markets (Stopford, 1997). The graph below shows the delivery of new build ships over the years has increased and was at its peak in 2007 and 2008 when the market was booming. This also shows that investors can be driven by market sentiments and buy ships in the current booming market at sk y high prices and fail to understand that ships will be delivered after 2 to 3 years time. Source: UNCTAD, 2009. Scrapping The fleet size also depends upon scrapping and loss of ships. Scrapping also balances the size of fleet in the market. Scrapping of ships is mainly depended upon the market conditions and also factors such as age, scarp prices, current earnings of ships, and change in regulations (Stopford, 1997). Scrapping of ships is normally a decision made in interest of the business. The futures market is also taken into consideration when making such decision (UNCTAD, 2009). As seen from table below percentage of scrapping of ships was very less in the booming period from year 2005 to 2008 as compared to years 2000 to 2004. This clearly shows that scrapping is mainly decided according to market conditions. Source: UNCTAD, 2009. * Vessels over 10000 dwt Freight rates Freight rates influence the supply of sea transport. The shipping business depends upon freight rates and it is the ultimate market regulator. (Stopford, 1997) In grain trading freight rate plays an important role in the marketing chain of grain market. Grain is a bulky and low value commodity, hence transportation costs account for a substantial part of the price of grain. The ocean freight rates for grain are variable and volatile. They are not co related with the price of grain. This is mainly because grain prices cycles are mainly driven by weather conditions, agricultural policy and general economic development (Atkin, 1995). While freight rates are derived by market conditions, supply and demand factors. One of the main factors of grain market is unlike other cargoes where geographical regions are defined grain imports are done by a range of countries with varying capacity. Hence grain markets are mainly spot charter markets, where freight rates are fixed on spot . Normally in grain trading tramp steamers are hired on a voyage charter basis. Freight rates are determined by the overall balance in supply/demand of vessels and cargo (Atkin, 1995). FORECASTING OF GRAIN TRADE World economy The worlds GDP as per statistics from IMF shows 3.9% increase for the year 2010 (Clarksons, 2010 cited in Scott, 2010). This is more due to the growth in emerging economies which is expected to rise by 6 percent. Advanced economies are expected to rise by 2% in 2010. Due to strength in demand from emerging economies commodity prices are expected to rise a bit (IMF, 2010). Global Population is going to grow at an assumed average of about 1.1 percent per year. Population in developing countries are going to increase more than the population in the developed countries. With fast industrialisation and urbanisation of developing countries and increase in young population in developing countries the demand for grain is going to see and upward trend (ERSUSDA, 2008). Seaborne commodity trade Grain production will be mainly dominated by USA followed by Argentina which is the second largest and then Canada and Australia. The world main grain exporters and importers are shown in the graphs below. Exports of grain will be dominated by USA where as Imports will be mainly from the Asia/Pacific region followed by Latin America Africa and Middle East (Genco Shipping 2010 IGC, 2010). As per International grain council for the crop year 2009/10 wheat and coarse grain trade may fall by 17.6 million tonnes or 7% to 230.8 million tons (Scott, 2010). Source: IGC, 2010 Source: IGC, 2010 Source: IGC, 2010 Wheat and Corn (Maize) are the major grains which are traded in the global market and they account for almost 89% of the world grain trade (IGC, 2010). Wheat and Coarse grain outlook Wheat crop production has touched a record high in Russia, Algeria and Australia. Also world wheat stocks in the five major exporting nations have forecasted an eight year high. As per estimates wheat imports will be reduced due to good harvest in importing countries such as Middle East and North Africa (Scott, 2010). Worlds corn harvest will remain unchanged for the year 2009/10. The projected corn trade for 2009/10 (October-September) is at 84.9 million tons which is lot lower than 2007/08 which is 101 million tons. Imports by Vietnam and China are increased slightly but it is not going to affect much in the world trade (USDA, 2010). The corn trade is going to increase because of more shipments to Canada, Brazil and Syria. Exports from Argentina and Brazil are going to increase due to good harvest. This is going to affect the USA corn exports which will be less this year (IGC, 2010). Moreover USA is using corn for industrial purpose to produce ethanol which will also have an impact on its corn exports (USDA, 2010). Grain imports into Asia (Excluding Japan) are also expected to be slightly lower in 2009/10 by 2%. Pakistans imports may fall by almost 87% as compared to last year due to good domestic harvest (Scott, 2010). European Union imports will also be down by 20% because of good domestic crop availability. Middle East imports are also expected to be lower by almost 19% (Scott, 2010). Japan imports over the years are showing a downward trend which will continue for the remaining part of the year. South Koreas wheat and coarse grain imports may be 9% higher as there is increase in demand for feed grain (Scott, 2010). Overall wheat and coarse grain trading is going to see a decline till the end of June 2010. This effect is mainly because of less demand for wheat in the market. As per Scott (2010) global seaborne trade for grain will pick up from Mid-2010 onwards. Domestic crop in the northern hemisphere is the key influencing factors, because of the current growing season it is very difficult to forecast grain trade after June 2010. Policy effects Due to rising food prices of grain over the years some countries have adopted protective policies to support their local farmers and their consumers. Some exporting countries have made restrictions on export of grain to support their internal market. Argentina, Russia and Kazakhstan have imposed tax on grain especially wheat and corn exports. China went a step further they eliminated the subsidy which was given for grain exports and have levy a tax for grain exports. Argentina and Ukraine have established quantity restrictions on wheat exports. As export countries have taken protective measures to reduce rising grain prices in 2008, importing countries have also taken measures to reduce grain prices. Countries such as Indonesia and Serbia have reduced their import tariffs on wheat imports. This decrease in export quantity by countries and import countries subsidising tax on imports will create a surge in demand in grain market. But rising fuel cost for shipping grain will increase the price of grain (USDA, 2008). World fleet As per Clarksons the worlds fleet is going to increase by 11.4 % in 2010 as compared to the last year. The handy max market is going to increase by 14.2% in 2010 from precious year and the panama market is going to increase by 7.59% in 2010. (Clarksons 2010 cited in Scott, 2010) This is going to create and oversupply of ships in the market. Due to the large number of ships in the new building order books, but low freight rates and demand for ships it is getting increasing difficult to project the growth of fleet ahead (Platou, 2010). Port congestion is not likely to affect the grain market in the current economic conditions. Source: Platou report, 2010 As seen from the graph the oversupply of ships and falling demand is affecting the utilization rate of bulk carriers. As most of the grain trading is done in the spot market the oversupply of ships is going to affect the freight rates (Singh, 2009). The handy size market will not be affected by much because the growth of handy size is limited. The number of Handy size ships built in 2010 will be higher but that is likely to be offset by scrapping of ships (Clarksons 2010 cited in Scott, 2010). Ship Owners are also converting single hull tankers to bulk carriers because of changes in regulations in tanker markets. This is also going to increase number of ships in the market (Scott, 2010). Shipbuilding As per Clarksons new ships joining the world fleet are going to increase the fleet by almost 61.9 million dwt by 2010. This is a very significant rise in deadweight to the world fleet (Clarksons cited in Scott, 2010). The ships whose delivery was delayed in 2009 are also going to hit the shores by 2010. Hence that may also result in rise of tonnage (Fairplay, 2010) As per estimates the new building which has been ordered have to be cut back by 40% so that the supply will balance the demand side by 2012 (Platou, 2010). Scrapping As per Clarksons (2010) cited in Scott (2010) an estimated on 11 million dwt tons of ships will be scrapped in the year 2010. But scrapping of ships is mainly a function of earnings hence it will mostly depend upon the freight rates earned by ships (Platou 2010). In the handy size market in 2009 5.3 million tons was scarped and this trend is going to follow in 2010. (Scott, 2010). CONCLUSION/RECOMMENDATIONS The grain trade is going to experience a decline in the crop year 2009/10. This decline is mainly because of good wheat harvest in most parts of the world, coarse grain trade will be following previous trends. In addition to good harvest the surplus of ships in the market is going to lower down the freight prices in the grain spot markers. Rising fuel prices may have an effect on freight rates which may offset the cheap freights offered by ships. In the near future grain trade routes will remain the same. The production of ethanol from corn will affect the grain exports from USA, but good harvest in Argentina and Brazil will nullify the effect. The world wheat production has a current surplus in the market which will lower down the price of wheat. Hence it is likely that in spite of surplus wheat and less demand from importing countries, importing countries may take advantage of low prices and will import more wheat and increase their wheat stock.